Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 18.898235 22.839885 27.215893 32.408672 38.375649 44.990387 52.849489
2025-02-16 13.178495 18.307728 24.632059 32.886870 43.250018 55.696769 71.630495
2025-02-23 9.785876 15.226140 22.515952 32.746657 46.450960 63.871917 87.346456
2025-03-02 7.395866 12.758388 20.496578 32.056423 48.403612 70.167056 100.714671
2025-03-09 5.865144 11.119445 19.221865 32.001861 50.924864 77.102720 115.089426
2025-03-16 4.346381 9.118215 17.008174 30.163723 50.557390 79.848855 123.737277
2025-03-23 3.721370 8.472221 16.773484 31.221265 54.408853 88.655647 141.188206
2025-03-30 2.981913 7.433206 15.692935 30.739511 55.779254 93.838914 153.631341
2025-04-06 2.667779 7.150508 15.870885 32.324229 60.466224 104.168345 174.047775
2025-04-13 1.962159 5.855593 13.967081 30.053733 58.641547 104.365866 179.257842
2025-04-20 1.683553 5.445821 13.688975 30.632707 61.568026 112.075009 196.183412
2025-04-27 1.476199 5.153052 13.594885 31.523083 65.060955 120.828819 215.068132
2025-05-04 1.241631 4.759132 13.303167 32.162497 68.455429 130.092025 236.008004
2025-05-11 1.039938 4.395209 13.028384 32.835592 72.032270 139.985297 258.662791
2025-05-18 0.831658 3.925993 12.411026 32.709653 74.091458 147.404946 277.628337
2025-05-25 0.640628 3.421100 11.590736 32.021040 74.983630 152.817532 293.480196
2025-06-01 0.512812 3.075464 11.096379 31.966596 77.069618 160.386297 313.220905
2025-06-08 0.358789 2.525734 9.906186 30.130112 75.394564 161.095947 321.279120
2025-06-15 0.310300 2.410849 9.935333 31.186703 79.718762 172.904884 348.931176
2025-06-22 0.237559 2.124489 9.373351 30.705382 80.757029 178.671014 366.234235
2025-06-29 0.214673 2.092642 9.614279 32.288682 86.329632 193.186986 399.524468
2025-07-06 0.139417 1.673771 8.447031 30.020221 83.282015 191.146886 403.150581
2025-07-13 0.115358 1.567427 8.343538 30.598674 86.619345 201.556674 429.632010